9 Games Left: What lies ahead for New York City FC

There's a back-to-school bite in the air as the Leagues Cup tournament winds down Major League Soccer resumes this Saturday. With nine games left to play in the 2024 New York City FC season, it feels like a good time to assess what lies ahead in the coming weeks.

The fact is, it's hard to get a bead on this team. They're the youngest squad in the league, and they're trying on personalities like a teenager trying to find themselves. On the one hand, they're capable of playing beautiful, creative soccer while locking down the defensive end of things. They can also look labored in attack, and needlessly give up the ball in dangerous areas.

We saw both versions of this team in Leagues Cup. There was the NYCFC that comprehensively outplayed Tigres UANL, a team that Eric Gomez of ESPN called "insanely deep" and "one of CONCACAF’s best-built sides." And there was the NYCFC that took a two-goal lead over FC Cincinnati on the road, only to give up four goals inside 11 minutes in what was the greatest defensive collapse in club history.

Which team will show up in Queens on Saturday, when New York City host Chicago Fire at Citi Field? It's hard to say. What's certain is that this team are in a good spot to finish what has been a strong season overall — although it will take some work to match the results they put up in their final nine games last year.

• The table

New York City currently sit in 5th Place in the Eastern Conference, with 38 points after 25 games. It's a return to the form of past years after a substandard 2023, when a squad made out of twine and chewing gum were in 13th Place with just 26 points.

NYCFC Results Through 25 Games

That 2023 squad went on to finish in 9th Place with 41 points and failed to make the playoffs. But Sporting Director David Lee brought in the most summer transfers in club history, and the remade squad put together a record of 4W-3D-2L in their last nine games, taking 15 points out of a possible 27.

To put that in context, the 2022 team's record in their final nine games was 4W-1D-4L, which earned them 13 points; the 2021 team record was 3W-3D-3L, which earned them 12 points.

If NYCFC get 15 points to finish the season with 53 points, they stand a good chance of finishing towards the top of the Eastern Conference and earning home-field advantage in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs, a best-of-three matchup that is played home-away-home. But it might not be enough: Last season, New England Revolution finished with 55 points but was down in 5th Place.

If NYCFC get 12 points or fewer they almost certainly won't have home-field advantage in the playoffs.

• The fixtures

If this year's edition are to match last year's record, they will need to get results against some prickly opponents. The most straightforward matchup is this Saturday, when a Chicago Fire that have never won a game in New York City come to town. But even Chicago present some danger: Sure, they flamed out in Leagues Cup, but they came oh-so-close to getting a result against Inter Miami in Ft Lauderdale before the break, and they found a way to beat Cincinnati on the road in July.

Then New York City will face Columbus Crew at Lower.com field, DC United at Audi Field, Philadelphia Union at Yankee Stadium, and Inter Miami at Yankee Stadium. Two of those teams, Columbus and Miami, are at the top of the table, and are tough to play under any circumstance.

The other two, Philadelphia and DC, are below the playoff zone — and will be hungry to get the extra point or two takes to get over the line. Besides, both have a history of finding an extra gear when facing New York City: NYCFC's win over Philadelphia earlier this season at Subaru Park was their first since 2021. As for DC, their 2-0 win at Audi Field last year proved to be the game that kept New York City out of the playoffs.

Next, New York City face New York Red Bulls at Red Bull Arena. No team have dominated NYCFC like the Red Bulls: New York City's record is a dismal 9W-4D-15L, with 27 goals scored and 46 goals against. More recent matches are an even 2W-1D-2L, but a hostile Red Bull Arena will be a difficult place to try to get a result.

Then NYCFC will host FC Cincinnati at a home venue to be named, and Nashville SC at a home venue to be named. Finally, NYCFC will face CF Montréal at Stade Saputo after the international break on Decision Day.

Looking at this lineup of fixtures, you have to think that every one of these games is winnable. At the same time, not a single one is a gimme. Last year, NYCFC rediscovered their winning ways by beating an underachieving Montréal and then going on to team-build against a dysfunctional Toronto FC. There's no low-hanging fruit this year.

• The squad

At this point last year, Cushing was busy integrating the six players signed in the busiest summer transfer window in club history — and going on to put together one of the strongest runs of results in the league.

This year, he has no new players, and is instead developing a squad that has remained essentially unchanged since Jovan Mijatović was signed in February.

New York City FC Transfers by Year/Window

Rather, it's a squad that hasn't had any new additions since then. Talles Magno left for Corinthians a little less than two weeks ago — and scored in his debut for his new club. That follows Andres Jasson's June departure for Danish club Aalborg BK, where he has become a regular starter.

The lack of inciting players shouldn't come as a complete surprise. As we discussed in May, New York City's roster is full, and even if Lee wanted to bring in a new face he didn't have much wiggle room on a team that already have two Designated Players, four U22 Initiative Players, and 10 International Players.

That leaves it up to Cushing to develop the team he has. Last August, Matt Freese emerged as the starting goalkeeper, and Kevin O'Toole made the left-back spot his. Who will emerge as locked-in starters in these final nine games?

As Matthew Mangam wrote in these pages earlier this week, New York City's improving attack could get better. Will we see Alonso Martínez assert his claim to the No 9 by regularly scoring goals? Will Julián Fernández or Agustín Ojeda become a lock on the Starting XI? Will Hannes Wolf continue to develop now that he gets regular playing time?

The four combined for 18 goals in 4090 minutes this MLS season, which works out to one goal every 227 minutes. If they continue to score at that rate, the four will produce just 6.5 goals in their final nine games this season. They'll need to do better than that if New York City are to finish strong.

The New York City attack hasn't been the same since the departure of Taty Castellanos back in 2022, and it took another hit when Gabriel Pereira left last year. Will a goal-scorer step up this year the way that Freese emerged in 2023?

• The vibes

This brings us to the most elusive but arguably the most important of all factors going into the end of the season, namely the vibes.

The vibes were strong after the Tigres win, for obvious reasons. But they were also strong after the penalty shootout wins against Querétaro FC and New England Revolution, when New York City went a perfect 11-for-11 from the spot.

The vibes were solid after the penalty loss to Columbus, when they found a way to score at Lower.com Field, and held the hosts to just one goal. It's especially impressive if you remember that Columbus had a combined seven goals in their two previous home games.

The truth is, vibes mean a lot to a team this young, and this inexperienced. We won't know what the vibes are until we see the squad take the field on Saturday for pregame warmups — that's when we'll be able to watch their expressions, read their body language, and see who bleached their hair this week.

It looks like it'll be a beautiful day in Queens, another gorgeous late summer afternoon followed by a soft, breezy night. Players who spent most of July and August traveling to games, playing seven of their last 10 matches on the road (and that's not including Tigres at Red Bull Arena), will be coming off a solid week of sleeping in their own beds, and spending downtime with their families and friends.

The stage will be set for Cushing and this team. What they do once they take the field will set the tone for how New York City finish the season, and the results they will get in their final nine games.