Introducing Scouting Report, a new feature that looks at the New York City FC squad in advance of the next game. Think of it like Oppo Research, only for the home team.
1. Score first, control the pace
It’s important that NYCFC open the scoring and get the home crowd fully behind them. After their statement elimination of Columbus, the Red Bulls are in full confidence right now, and taking a crowd-silencing early lead could swing the entire game in their favor.
The Red Bulls did have to come from behind in Game 2 against Columbus, but NYCFC’s defense is strong enough to keep them out. It’s just the question of who gets the first goal. — Matthew Mangam
Hudson River Blue Staff
2. Contain Emil Forsberg
One of the under-celebrated strengths of this New York City squad is their ability to silence the most dangerous players in the league. See: Lionel Messi and Inter Miami, Christian Benteke and DC United.
The team advanced through Round One by limiting FC Cincinnati's Lucinao Acosta in Games 2 and 3. The playmaker was completely marginalized in Game 2, when his passing lanes were choked off by James Sands and Keaton Parks — it was one of Acosta's worst games this year. Sands, Parks, and the rest of the team frustrated him just enough in Game 3 to force the game to penalties.
NYCFC will need another strong collective performance if they're to contain Emil Forsberg, who is now playing the record-signing he is. Forsberg came off the bench in his previous two appearances against New York City, and we haven't seen what he can do when fully fit.
Two factors will be working in NYCFC's favor. One, the teeny-tiny Citi Field pitch: Forsberg likes to play wide, and he might have a hard time adjusting to a field missing seven feet or so along the flank. Two, he just played for the Swedish national team on Tuesday night in the EUFA Nations League: Forsberg came on as a 66' sub in a 6-0 route over Azerbaijan, which isn't aptly a heavy shift, but the travel day and time adjustment might take a toll on the 33-year-old. — Oliver Strand
3. Start Justin Haak
Nick Cushing must play a hot hand, and start Justin Haak. The Homegrown midfielder/central defender/Swiss Army knife was one of the most consistent players in Round One, and was instrumental in smothering the Cincinnati attack. Keep in mind that the Red Bulls coming to Citi Field on Saturday are much-improved over the Red Bulls that NYCFC beat in Harrison last month.
Haak will need to handle a team that legitimately outplayed and outscored Columbus Crew on the road, and that means shutting down a reborn Dante Vanzeir. — Oliver Strand
Hudson River Blue Staff
4. Passing accuracy
If New York City wants to control what might be a tight, tense game against an opportunistic and well-organized Red Bulls side, they'll need to get back to being more accurate with their passing than they were in the series vs Cincinnati.
NYCFC completed 81.6% of all attempted passes this season, per data on fbref.com, but their pass completion rate was right around 75% in each of the three games in Round One. The team also collectively averaged 527 passes attempted per 90 minutes across the entire MLS season, but that number was in the low-to-mid 400s against Cincinnati.
The team had more control in the passing game the last time they faced the Red Bulls at Citi Field in May, with NYCFC completing 85.9% of 619 attempted passes during the 2-1 win. Then again, maybe passing accuracy won't matter too much — when New York City went to Harrison, New Jersey and dropped five goals on the Red Bulls, they only completed 72.2% of their 471 pass attempts. — Andrew Leigh
5. The X-Factor: Matt Freese
For me, it’s all about Matt Freese. The 26-year-old goalkeeper is the undisputed defensive rock for the Pigeons. Freese was the difference-maker for New York City when they stopped FC Cincinnati in the first round. Freese didn’t just come up huge in the series-deciding penalty shootout, he turned in a clinic in open play as well, and was arguably the biggest reason the Pigeons are still flying.
Against a Red Bulls team that may be missing Lewis Morgan, I think Freese comes up huge again, and ensures New York City plays for a second trip to the MLS Cup Final in four years. – Raf Noboa y Rivera
Matthew Mangam
Moments ago, Cushing confirmed in the pregame press conference that the squad is fully fit (with the exception of Malachi Jones, whose rehab is advancing after breaking his leg in July). That means the slight injury that was nagging Maxi Moralez seems to be resolved.
That's good news for NYCFC, who need their #27 to perform his role as the team's No 10 and be at his playmaking best. — Oliver Strand
Predicted Starting XI
The only real question is if Tayvon Gray or Mitja Ilenič will start at right-back. We are going with Ilenič because of his outstanding performance in Game 2, and his ice-cold series-winning penalty in Game 3. But don't be surprised if Cushing subs one for the other. — Andrew Leigh
