Every Golden Boot scenario, by the numbers

Note: Updated November 7, 2021

New York City FC’s very own Taty Castellanos leads the race for the 2021 Golden Boot presented by Audi with 18 goals. Will he be the first Pigeon to win the award? It all depends on what happens this Sunday.

Here is every Golden Boot scenario, explained:

1. If Castellanos scores lots and lots of goals on Sunday, Castellanos will win the Golden Boot
2. If no player scores on Sunday and all games finish 0-0, Castellanos will win the Golden Boot
3. If DC United’s Ole Kamara or Seattle Sounder FC’s Raul Ruidíaz match Castellanos’s goal total on the season, their assist records will determine the winner, and Castellanos will win the Golden Boot
4. If Kamara or Ruidíaz score two goals more than Castellanos scores on Sunday, Castellanos will not win the Golden Boot
5. If Castellanos doesn’t score, and Kamara and Ruidíaz score one goal or fewer, and other leaders don’t score too many goals, and Jesús Medina scores ten goals on Sunday, Medina will win the Golden Boot

It’s worth noting that NYCFC’s all-time scoring leader David Villa never won the Golden Boot despite notching 23 goals in 2016 and 22 goals in 2017. 

Timing is everything.