New York City FC's attack has been a talking point and cause for concern this season. The frontline is led by Alonso Martínez and Santiago Rodríguez, who have eight goals each in Major League Soccer. Overall, NYCFC have scored 36 goals in 25 league games, which is a big improvement over the 25 goals the team had at the same point last year. But the offense has not yet reached its full potential.
New York City are one of the best teams at creating chances from open play and have a strong xG to show for it. However, two key factors are preventing the offense from reaching its full potential: Finishing chances and scoring on the road.
1. Make xG = goals scored
After 25 games NYCFC have an xG of 39.5, which places them in the Top 10 in MLS, above the likes of Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati.
xG, Goals Scored | 2024 MLS
| Club | xG | G |
|---|---|---|
| LAFC | 46.5 | 47 |
| Colorado | 46.4 | 46 |
| LA Galaxy | 45.8 | 50 |
| Philadelphia | 44.3 | 45 |
| Real Salt Lake | 41.4 | 51 |
| Red Bulls | 40.1 | 40 |
| DC United | 39.7 | 35 |
| Inter Miami | 39.5 | 56 |
| New York City FC | 39.5 | 36 |
| Columbus | 39.3 | 47 |
| Portland | 38.4 | 49 |
| Cincinnati | 38.1 | 44 |
| Atlanta United | 37.5 | 34 |
| Minnesota | 37.2 | 39 |
| Vancouver | 36.6 | 42 |
But New York City's goal tally of 36 is significantly lower than their 39.5 xG. The only other team with as large a gap among the league-leaders are DC United, whose 35 goals trail their 39.7 xG.
Some teams score well above their xG: see Inter Miami (39.5 xG, 56 goals), Columbus (39.3 x , 47 goals), and Cincinnati (38.1 xG, 44 goals), which can be credited to the finishing and overall quality of the attack. You have to factor in luck as well, such as own goals and scoring from the opponent's errors.
Whatever the reasons, NYCFC are underperforming their xG this year.
2. Convert big chances
Why is NYCFC's xG so strong? The team is good at creating chances from open play. Per Opta Analyst, New York City's xG from open play is 32.53, which is actually the fifth-best in the league.
But once again, the actual goal tally of 29 tally is lower than the xG, which points to the team's lack of finishing.
Open Play xG, Goals Scored | 2024 MLS
| Club | xG | G |
|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy | 37.31 | 44 |
| Real Salt Lake | 34.69 | 38 |
| LAFC | 33.71 | 30 |
| Inter Miami | 32.71 | 45 |
| New York City FC | 32.53 | 29 |
| Columbus | 30.81 | 36 |
| Cincinnati | 29.99 | 36 |
| Portland | 29.95 | 40 |
| Red Bulls | 29.86 | 28 |
Per FBref, NYCFC has totaled 581 shot-creating actions and averages 23 shot-creating actions per 90 this season, which puts them in the top half of the league. With the high number of chances created, New York City has attempted 334 shots — that's 11th-most in MLS. But the team have only placed 33.5 percent on target which is 12th-lowest in the league. Shooting accuracy is a factor that needs to be improved in order to improve finishing.
Overall, NYCFC created 68 big chances this season, the eighth-most in the league. A total of 25 of those chances were converted, which might not seem bad on the face of it. But the team's 43 misses are the fifth-most in MLS.
3. Fix the road blues
Playing on the road in MLS is not easy. But if you want to be one of the best teams in the league, you have to find ways to score away from home.
NYCFC's road struggles are well-known, with the team only notching 11 away goals in 13 matches. That low number is a big reason why they only won three games away from the Big Apple, picking up 13 points on the road.
Eastern Conference, Away Goals | 2024 MLS
| Club | GP | G |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus | 12 | 26 |
| Cincinnati | 12 | 24 |
| Philadelphia | 12 | 24 |
| Inter Miami | 12 | 23 |
| Orlando City | 13 | 22 |
| Red Bulls | 13 | 17 |
| Charlotte | 13 | 16 |
| DC United | 12 | 15 |
| Chicago | 13 | 15 |
| Montréal | 13 | 15 |
| New York City FC | 13 | 11 |
| Toronto | 14 | 11 |
| Atlanta | 12 | 10 |
| New England | 10 | 10 |
| Nashville | 12 | 8 |
Those 11 goals put the team at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. New York City struggle to score on the road despite being one of the best teams at creating chances from open play.
4. Get the Strikers scoring
Barring Martínez and his eight goals, NYCFC have not found success in the No 9 position. Mounsef Bakrar ended his scoring drought with an important goal against New York Red Bulls back in May, but his season total of three goals in 14 starts and 21 appearances is poor. Jovan Mijatović scored a Leagues Cup goal against FC Cincinnati, but he has yet to find the back of the net in nine MLS appearances.
That gives New York City a total of 11 goals from the No 9 position, which ranks lowest among the Top 10 teams in the Supporters' Shield race.
Striker Goals/Club | 2024 MLS
| Club | GP | G | GPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 25 | 17 | 0.68 |
| LA Galaxy | 26 | 17 | 0.65 |
| FC Cincinnati | 25 | 17 | 0.68 |
| LAFC | 24 | 19 | 0.79 |
| Real Salt Lake | 25 | 23 | 0.92 |
| Columbus Crew | 23 | 15 | 0.65 |
| Colorado Rapids | 26 | 12 | 0.46 |
| New York Red Bulls | 25 | 21 | 0.84 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 23 | 0.96 |
| New York City FC | 25 | 11 | 0.44 |
NYCFC isn't so far off the pace of a Colorado Rapids led by Rafael Navarro's 11 goals, or even a Columbus Crew led by Cucho Hernandez's 15 goals. But they're a full step behind other league leaders.
New York City instead relies on wingers such as Hannes Wolf, Agustín Ojeda, and Julián Fernández to make up for the lack of goals from up top. The three of them have combined for 10 goals this MLS season, which is an OK output from the wings. But it doesn't compensate for a No 9 that's six to 10 goals behind the competition.
The offense is fully capable of reaching its full potential: NYCFC have the youngest roster in the league, and the players on this rebuilt squad still need time to develop. But there are just nine matches remaining in the regular season, and New York City will need to be more clinical in front of goal both at home and on the road if they are to finish at the top of the Eastern Conference.
