Note: This post was updated to reflect Santos Laguna's penalty shootout win over Atlanta United on Sunday, August 4 at 6:18 pm ET.
Note: This post was updated to reflect New York City FC's 4-2 loss to FC Cincinnati on Monday, August 5 at 10:08 pm ET.
That was easy: One Leagues Cup match played, one 0-0 draw, one penalty shootout win, and New York City FC are through to the knockout rounds.
New York City's triumph over Querétaro FC on penalties last Sunday night at Yankee Stadium earned them two points, and that was enough for them to advance. After last night's 1-0 FC Cincinnati win in regulation over Querétaro, Querétaro has been eliminated and New York City will play in the Leagues Cup Round of 32 no matter what happens in the group-stage finale vs Cincinnati on Monday at TQL Stadium.
The who, when, and where of that Round of 32 match-up is still to be determined, and hinges on both the result Monday night and how the groups shake out elsewhere in the tournament's East region.
To figure that out, we need to answer a few questions.
Question 1: Who will win East 1 on Aug 5?
What we do know for certain: Cincinnati and NYCFC will be playing for the top spot in the East 1 at TQL Stadium on Monday night. That's the simplest of scenarios to figure out: Whoever wins the match, be it during the 90 minutes of regulation or via a penalty shootout, wins the group.
You may be wondering: If NYCFC wins on penalties, wouldn't they be level with Cincinnati on four points? They would be, but New York City would top the group because the head-to-head result is the first Leagues Cup tiebreaker. The NHL-style approach to handing out extra points and "wins" for shootout results makes it so much simpler to break these kinds of ties.
Who will New York City play in the Round of 32? That's still pending multiple other results, including what goes on in East 7.
That's because the winner of East 1 will play the runner-up of East 7, while the runner-up of East 1 will play the winner of East 5.
UPDATE: Cincinnati won East 1 by defeating New York City 4-2 in the final group stage game, and will face Santos Laguna on Friday, August 9. (See below.)
Question 2: Who will advance from East 7 on Aug 4?
The winner of NYCFC's group, East 1, faces the second-place team from East 7. That group was already won by DC United, which picked up five points from their two group-stage victories over Atlanta United and Santos Laguna. New York City can't face DC, but the clash on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz between Atlanta and Santos Laguna will decide who finishes second and moves on to face the winner of East 1.
If NYCFC beat Cincinnati either through a regular time win or by drawing and winning the penalty shootout, they will face either Atlanta United or Santos Laguna as the "away" team.
UPDATE: Atlanta and Santos played to a scoreless draw, then Santos won the penalty shootout 4-5. Santos advance to the Round of 32 and will play the winner of East 1.
That's because both of those clubs are seeded higher in this year's Leagues Cup, which instituted a numeric ranking for all 47 teams participating in this year's tournament based on recent results in the MLS and Liga MX regular seasons. Atlanta is ranked 17th, Santos Laguna ranks 30th, and New York City ranks 31st, according to the seeding numbers listed beside each team on the MLS website.
If Atlanta advances from their win-or-go-home meeting with Santos Laguna, we know that a group-winning New York City would play the Five Stripes, but not at Mercedes-Benz Stadium — that match would be held at Bobby Dodd Stadium, on the campus of Georgia Tech, according to Atlanta United's website.
It's less clear where New York City would play Santos Laguna, should NYCFC beat Cincinnati and should the Mexican team pull off the road win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Santos Laguna is one spot above New York City in the tournament seedings so, in theory, would have hosting priorities–though none of the tournament's games are actually "hosted" by any of the teams from Liga MX, given every match takes place in the United States. Should NYCFC face Santos Laguna, it could be that they will play as the "away" team in New York.
If Cincinnati (the 3rd ranked team in this year's tournament) beat NYCFC on Monday night, then whoever advances between Atlanta or Santos Laguna will travel to TQL Stadium to face Pat Noonan's reigning Supporters' Shield-winning squad in the Round of 32.
Question 3: Who will win East 5 on Aug 6?
Who will New York City face should they lose in Cincinnati and finish second in East 1? As per the bracket structure announced for the tournament in March, the second-place finisher in NYCFC's group is lined up to take on the winner of East 5, which is currently topped by the New England Revolution, but could be won by either New England or Mazatlán of Liga MX.
New England beat Mazatlán 1-0, but Mazatlán beat Nashville SC 2-0. If New England holds Nashville to a draw or beats them in regulation, they will top the group, regardless of what happens in the penalty shootout.
That puts Nashville in a win-in-regulation-or-go-home situation. But if they do beat New England inside 90 minutes, they would finish second in East 5, making Mazatlán the group winners and the next opponents on tap for New York City FC.
New England is the 10th ranked team in Leagues Cup, so if they win the group and line up with NYCFC, they would have hosting rights based on the seedings, and the match would likely take place on the turf at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.
Mazatlán are the 41 seed in Leagues Cup, so if they emerge as the top team in East 5, New York City (31st seed) would have hosting priority, though where that potential home game would be played is not clear as of this writing.
When: August 7, 8, or 9
Got all that? If not, here is an attempt to simplify things even further as far as what the Round of 32 of Leagues Cup 2024 will hold for NYCFC.
The Round of 32 takes place between August 7-9, so we know the window of days in which the team's knockout game will take place.
Where: Atlanta, Foxborough, or TBD
If New York City wins East 1 and Atlanta advances from East 7, then NYCFC will face United at Bobby Dodd Stadium, on the campus of Georgia Tech, per Atlanta United's website.
If New York City wins East 1 and Santos Laguna advance from East 7, then NYCFC will play as the "away" team at a venue to be determined — but that could very well be in New York City or close by. (See below.)
If New York City comes in second in East 1 and New England wins East 5, then NYCFC will face the Revolution at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.
If New York City comes in second in East 1 and Mazatlán wins East 5, then NYCFC will host the Round of 32 matchup at a venue to be determined.
That TBD won't be Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees will be playing. It could be Citi Field, as the Mets start a 10-game road trip today and will next play in Queens on August 13. It could also be Red Bull Arena, after the New York Red Bulls became the first team to crash out of Leagues Cup when they drew Pachuca 0-0 on Tuesday, then lost in penalty kicks.
One unlikely but tantalizing option? That TBD could be Randall's Island.
Andrew Leigh
