New York City FC protected its home field and beat FC Cincinnati 3-1 at Citi Field, meaning they’ll now play a first-ever win-or-go-home Game 3 in the team’s first appearance in the best-of-three Round One of the MLS Cup Playoffs.
This was a turnaround performance after New York City laid an egg on the road on Monday night in Game 1. With the scene shifted to Queens, it was Cincinnati that looked like the more tentative, cautious side.
They played like a team with a lot less to lose while holding a one-game advantage in this series and left the door open for New York City to walk through.
You wouldn't have put great odds on there being a Game 3 if you based your opinion solely on how NYCFC looked in Game 1, which was one of the team's weakest attacking showings of the 2024 season.
A huge in-week improvement was needed and NYCFC produced it with their backs proverbially against the wall. They didn't do it by making tons of changes to their personnel, with Maxi Moralez the only attacking player to slide into the Starting XI after being on the bench in Cincinnati.
Hudson River Blue Staff
Yet proof of New York City's improvement was clear, not just in their collective increased sense of urgency and aggression. NYCFC managed two shots on target in this first half alone – both goals – a total that matched their entire accurate shot output from the full 90 minutes played in Cincinnati earlier this week.
The attack was significantly improved, with NYCFC putting five shots on target while generating 2.62 expected goals (xG), a huge jump from that particularly low 0.3 xG the team produced in their Game 1 loss. That number gets skewed a bit since Santiago Rodríguez was awarded (and converted) a penalty in second-half stoppage time to finalize that 3-1 scoreline, but even before the cherry-on-top PK, NYCFC had put Cincinnati's defense under a significant amount of duress.
It still didn't translate to the most comfortable win, as Cincinnati pulled within one goal with around 20 minutes to play and would have found an equalizer if not for an incredible point-blank save by Matt Freese to deny Teenage Hadebe in the 80th minute. While the attack's improvement gets the headlines, NYCFC still needed defensive players like Freese in goal and newfound starting center-back Justin Haak to come up big to get this result, which they did.
In the end, NYCFC collectively did enough to force a Game 3, and now we'll confront this uniquely MLS scenario, a decisive third playoff game that only occurs in one early round of the MLS Cup Playoffs.
If we were in the olden times, this two-legged tie would have been won by New York City, 3-2, and they'd be looking forward to the MLS Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Instead, New York City will now look to make MLS history as a road team trying to pull off an upset in Round One's decisive Game 3.
In the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs, three Round One series went to those decisive third games, and all three times, the series followed the same script. The higher-seeded home team won Game 1, the lower seeds returned serve in their Game 2 home match, and then the decisive Game 3s were each won by the higher-seeded home teams.
That would look to give Cincinnati an edge, as they've already accomplished the first two parts of this best-of-three process. An edge also might go to Cincinnati for Game 3 due to New York City's unsightly record at TQL Stadium since it opened in 2021.
The visitors head back to Cincinnati for this win-or-go-home Game 3 with an all-time record of 1W-1D-5L at TQL Stadium in all competitions, the one win coming in NYCFC's first-ever visit to the stadium on September 18, 2021. Nick Cushing and his team are on a five-match losing streak at TQL that they'll have to snap if they want to keep their season going.
Home has been a consistent source of wins this season and New York City FC again turned into the best version of itself while playing in front of their fans in New York City, but they'll now have to do this all over again in a week, but on the road against a team that they've had very little joy against when paying as the away team.
