New York City FC heads into Decision Day on a wave of momentum, winners of three straight following the 3-1 victory over Nashville SC at Red Bull Arena in their next-to-last match of the 2024 MLS regular season.
Unlike in 2023, pre-Decision Day talk around the team isn’t focused on just trying to make those playoffs. Focus instead has centered on finishing in Fourth Place and getting a brief home-field advantage in the best-of-three Round One of the playoffs.
Beating Nashville means New York City can still accomplish that goal, but this late-year winning streak has also lowered the urgency level heading into the final regular season match in Montréal.
That’s not to dismiss the worthiness of NYCFC’s quest for Fourth Place. Having the advantage of a potential second home match in the best-of-three Round One is valuable, especially if the team was facing, say, the searing-hot Orlando City SC – winners of six of their last seven matches.
Coming out of the Nashville win, it feels fair to ask just how important it really is to finish Fourth? It’s not a hugely likely outcome and it would all but guarantee a playoff meeting with Orlando, the current hottest team in MLS.
Yet to go by the probabilities, a Round One meeting with Orlando already seems likely, so a finish in either Fourth or Fifth Place might do nothing to change NYCFC’s opponent.
NYCFC are, for now, stuck in Fifth Place, and looking like something of a long-shot to secure Fourth Place.
The website PlayoffStatus.com gives NYCFC only a 12% chance to jump Orlando and claim Fourth Place on Decision Day. New York City look destined for Fifth Place in the East – the site says it's a 70% likelihood that Nick Cushing's team will still be in Fifth once the dust settles on Decision Day, while having Orlando at 88% to finish Fourth.
Leapfrogging Orlando is a long-shot because it would require a New York City road win in Montréal, and for Orlando to falter at home against Atlanta United FC on Decision Day.
That scenario can’t be completely ruled out, as despite being in 12th Place in the Eastern Conference, Atlanta is still alive and playing for a playoff berth – though they will need a win, and they need NYCFC to beat CF Montréal, plus Charlotte FC to beat DC United, plus either a road win or draw from a reeling FC Cincinnati who travel to face Philadelphia Union at Raquinho’s house under the bridge in Chester, Pennsylvania.
Even a draw could be enough for Orlando to clinch Fourth, as they have a goal differential advantage over New York City, so if both teams end up on 53 points, the Boys in Blue would need to have won at Stade Saputo by a wide margin.
Montréal happens to be a place where New York City has never lost a match in its 10-year history, though CF Montréal will have tons on the line on Decision Day.
Montréal hasn't officially clinched their own spot in the win-or-go-home Wild Card round – the Canadian club is currently in Ninth Place, but could fall out of the playoff spots if they don't get a result against New York City, and if Philadelphia or Atlanta get results they need to jump them.
It’s theoretically a must-win for both teams but it’s much closer to an actual must-win in the context of the Canadian hosts’s season. New York City’s season is going beyond Decision Day no matter what, and it sure looks like it’s headed to Central Florida for a second playoff meeting with NYCFC’s 2015 MLS expansion season rivals.
Facing Orlando would mean New York City plays the absolute hottest team in Major League Soccer since league play resumed following Leagues Cup.
Orlando has collected 18 points from its eight post-Leagues Cup matches, tied with an unbeaten Inter Miami CF on points at the top of the Eastern Conference form table in MLS matches played after Leagues Cup.
New York City are a respectable Sixth Place in this post-Leagues Cup form table, and they haven’t lost to Orlando head-to-head since August 2022, a five-match unbeaten run under Nick Cushing.
It’s tempting to play the “what if" game about NYCFC’s potential playoff opponent. Wouldn’t it be even bigger for NYCFC’s playoff momentum to hypothetically beat the hottest team in the league in the first playoff round?
A much different “what if”: Would losing on Decision Day in French-Canada and swapping places in the table with Sixth Place Charlotte FC really be the worst thing, given it would mean playing a struggling FC Cincinnati, who sit in 10th Place in that post-Leagues Cup form table seen above?
To go back to PlayoffStatus.com’s prognostications for the final table positions, they rate that scenario - Charlotte finishing above NYCFC - at a 19% probability, slim odds, but actually better odds than the ones given to NYCFC finishing in Fourth.
It still feels like a long shot because New York City won’t just roll over for Montréal, and because no team is going to say, "We would rather finish lower in the standings to get an easier playoff opponent."
This winning streak has made it possible to play hypotheticals with the upcoming playoffs. It’s also made it possible to wonder what team would even want to face this NYCFC?
If only this were MLS NEXT Pro, where the top three playoff teams in each conference get to hand-pick their first playoff opponents.
Then we’d know which team in the Eastern Conference felt the most confident about dispatching a team with a ridiculously clinical 16-goal striker, a Best MLS XI-caliber goalkeeper, and a deep squad full of talented young players, many who weren’t around for the team’s glory run to MLS Cup in 2021.
While it’s fun to wonder about potential playoff matchups, New York City could render all of that wondering and speculating moot by continuing to stack up wins, in Montréal on October 19 and beyond, be it in Orlando or elsewhere.
