Oppo Research: 5 Things about FC Cincinnati

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press to learn more about FC Cincinnati, New York City FC''s opponent in Round One of the MLS Playoffs at TQL Stadium on Monday night. Here is your NYCFC vs Cincinnati preview.

1. Defense, passing, and finishing struggles

Hudson River Blue: Cincinnati limped into the playoffs, winning just one of their last five games. What’s led to Cincinnati’s poor run of form? And will they turn it around in the playoffs?

Laurel Pfahler: Defense has been down because of injuries, but I would say struggles with passing and finishing have been the biggest issues down the stretch, and there are two clear reasons why that has been the case. FC Cincinnati has not played the same lineup more than once – 42 different lineups across all competitions this season – and there is no dominant forward and no forward combination that has proven to be consistent. The lack of consistency with the lineup has surely impacted cohesiveness, and then we’ve seen way too many turnovers or just the inability to connect that final pass.

Regarding the forward situation, frankly, the club failed to replace either of its starting forwards from last year. Aaron Boupendza did what he needed to help the team make its Supporters Shield push at the end of last year but turned out to be a disaster of a signing long term, to the point his contract was terminated this summer. It was clear he was going to need replaced soon enough to try to do so in the summer window, but FCC aimed a bit too high and then was “left at the altar,” as GM Chris Albright said. On the last day of the window, the club signed what Albright admitted to be “Plan Z,” bringing Niko Gioacchini on loan from Serie A side Como, but he’s yet to record a goal contribution in eight games (six starts). Brandon Vazquez left for Monterrey in the offseason, and FCC was hoping Corey Baird would carry over a breakout performance with Houston last year and that hasn’t been the case. Yuya Kubo, who came to the club as a DP second striker in 2020, has played midfield since 2021 – before Pat Noonan arrived – and finally was given an opportunity to go back to his natural role. He’s been their best option there, scoring 10 goals with two assists, but he’s scored one goal in league play since recording a brace on July 6 against Miami (their last really good game). Kevin Kelsy, a U22 player on loan, started off strong but hasn’t been able to establish himself as a regular starter, and Sergio Santos is a great option off the bench with the speed and physicality he brings late in games. This last game, wingback Luca Orellano played forward alongside Kubo. There’s just no clear plan, and it’s a crapshoot who will start up top every game.

 I would say as long as Luciano Acosta is on the field, FCC always has a chance to “turn it on.” The team asked a lot of him early in the season and he came through with a game-winning goal or assist in 12 of the 18 wins. He’s not been as dominant since foot injuries sidelined him in July, but if he takes over in the playoffs, FCC is capable of going on a run. There’s still a lot of talent on this team.

2. Rotating backline could hold Cincinnati back in playoffs

HRB: Cincinnati finished third in the Eastern Conference. If they advance against NYCFC, they’ll play the winner of Columbus versus Red Bulls. Do you think Cincinnati can go further than the Conference finals, where they fell short last season?

LP: I get the sense FC Cincinnati fans don’t have a lot of faith in that possibility based on recent performances, but I think Noonan was right last week when he said all it takes is one win to ignite a spark. The Decision Day win over Philadelphia wasn’t pretty, but the performance looked a lot better outside of the lack of finishing and a very early breakdown by a backline that had one day of training together before the match. Teenage Hadebe and Miles Robinson were away for international duty, and Chidozie Awaziem was coming back from a hamstring injury, but after the second-minute goal, Hadebe, Robinson and Awaziem looked like a potentially very good combination at centerback.

Hadebe, a free agent pickup before the roster freeze deadline, had started two previous games but Awaziem was out for those, and this was the first game he really looked like someone they could rely on. It seems he has now jumped Ian Murphy in the depth chart, after Murphy has struggled with consistency lately.

FCC has been trying to figure things out on the back line since Matt Miazga and Nick Hagglund went down with season-ending injuries in June, so if this new combination of players on the back line can quickly develop chemistry and play up to their potential, that would be a big difference-maker for the playoffs. Columbus and Red Bulls would both be a tough matchup for Cincinnati, but both are teams FCC will be motivated to beat – on the road at Columbus with a chance to do what the Crew did to the Orange and Blue last year in knocking them out at home in the conference final or at home against Red Bulls, a team FCC fans love to hate.

3. Cincinnati struggles at home

HRB: Cincinnati has 11 wins and totaled 35 points on the road, the second-most in MLS. On the other hand, their home form took a step back, with just 24 points out of a possible 51. How can Cincinnati fix their struggles at home in the playoffs?

LP: There’s really no explanation for why this team has not been as good at home this year. The crowds are always good, fans provide a lot of energy and it was a fortress for FCC last year during the Shield run. I think there is some concern that the home-field advantage won’t mean much for this first game, though. Tickets were priced higher than what a lot of fans were willing to commit to for a team that hasn’t been in good form, and there are a ton of seats still available, and then you add the Monday date to it and a lot of the families that normally would have come will likely opt to watch it for free on TV. The kickoff time of 6:45 p.m. should help with early, weeknight bedtimes, but those who work late will be rushing to get there.

Even last year, when the team was really good, the first game was a hard sell because fans decided to wait until Game 3, if needed, or the next round. Of course, there’s no guarantees for additional home games after Game 1, but I don’t know that tips fans toward buying if they weren’t already interested. I personally don’t see why a Monday Night Football game in Cincinnati generates so much buzz and this club is having a hard time selling a playoff game, but that’s where things stand right now.

4. The X-Factor: The defense

HRB: What’s the X-factor that could decide this game?

LP: A few weeks ago when this was asked of me for the matchup between these teams, I said Acosta finding his magic would be the X-factor. I still think that’s the case, but this time I will say it depends on which back line shows up. If it’s the one we saw later in the match Saturday at Philadelphia, NYCFC is going to have a tough time breaking that down, and I still think FC Cincinnati has enough talent to find a goal. Being able to grind out a 2-1 win at Philadelphia on Decision Day should give some hope that this team can win a tight game. New York will have its best chance getting a lead early, as Cincinnati has been susceptible to slow starts.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

LP: Final score: 1-0

I think FC Cincinnati builds off Decision Day with a strong defensive performance. I think the trio of Kubo, Orellano and Acosta up top is good enough to make something happen offensively, but I see this one being a battle to the end. I could then see NYCFC bounce back at home and the teams needing Game 3 to decide who advances.