Oppo Research: 5 Things about FC Cincinnati

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press to learn more about FC Cincinnati, New York City FC's opponent at Red Bull Arena on Wednesday night. Here is your NYCFC vs Cincinnati preview.

1. Injuries and holes hurting the Cincinnati attack

Hudson River Blue: Cincinnati struggled heading into Leagues Cup, and has had mixed results in MLS since. Cincinnati remain third in the Eastern Conference, but what is holding them back from overtaking Columbus Crew in second?

Laurel Pfahler: This looks like a team still trying to find its way. There has been absolutely no consistency with the lineups because of injuries and other absences, and guys have been playing out of position to fill holes. Saturday was the first time FCC had a full active roster to choose from in quite some time, and unfortunately, the team still got off to a slow start following a full week of preparation and that led to a 2-1 loss to LAFC.

The defense has looked better in recent games, but the attack just looks lost to me, and I can’t say I really know what the plan is there. GM Chris Albright brought in Corey Baird this offseason hoping he would build off his best season to date in 2023 with Houston, and that just hasn’t been the case at all. Then, things went really awry with DP forward Aaron Boupendza, who had his contract terminated in August after he stopped showing up to training. Kevin Kelsy came in at the end of the primary transfer window, and has had some really good moments, but at age 19 he still has some growing to do. Niko Gioacchini was what Albright even called “Plan Z” at the very end of the summer window, and the team has gotten no production from him through five appearances.

Yuya Kubo, who spent most of the past four years at midfield, has been a pleasant surprise as the team’s best forward this year, scoring 10 goals. But, outside of that, it’s a crap shoot what you will see up top. Wingback Luca Orellano and midfielders Luciano Acosta and Pavel Bucha are probably the biggest threats, so everything comes from outside the box it seems lately. And Acosta is still trying to get his magic back after two months of trying to nurse toe injuries.

The four-goal production NYCFC saw from FCC in Leagues Cup was very much not the norm of what to expect, but, as bad as I might make it seem, this is still a team guaranteed a top 3 playoff seed. The Orange and Blue have been very good on the road and finding enough ways to win to be dangerous.

2. Three center-backs lost to injury?

HRB: Cincinnati seemed to lose center-back Chidozie Awaziem to injury in the 1-2 loss to LAFC on Saturday. With a backline already missing Matt Miazaga and Nick Hagglund, how could this affect Cincinnati now and heading into the playoffs?

LP: Awaziem stepped into a tackle and injured either his foot or lower leg, it seemed, but he was still getting some imaging done Monday morning so we don’t have an update on him yet. I would not expect him to play Wednesday. He immediately asked for a sub and needed help off the pitch. Perhaps it won’t be as bad as it looked and the international break next week can help get him back for the playoffs, but regardless, any absence from one of the starting three options at center back is concerning. Awaziem was really starting to play well and added a dimension to the attack that had been lacking without Miazga in the form of some really great long balls to help spring the attack. He will be missed, assuming he’s out.

FCC brought Awaziem in as a replacement for Miazga this season, and the only other two regular starters at center-back are Miles Robinson and Ian Murphy. When one or both of those two haven’t been available, Pat Noonan has relied on wingbacks stepping in rather than turning to the back end of the depth chart at center back. Alvas Powell looked solid stepping in without a warmup Saturday in the 32^nd minute and could get the start, but otherwise, DeAndre Yedlin has been playing there more often and he could get tapped again, though he’s much more valuable at wingback. I actually could see him getting a rest to start this game, on the bench.

FCC did sign former Houston Dynamo DP center back Teenage Hadebe as a free agent before the roster freeze deadline, but he played four minutes in just one of the four games he was available and doesn’t appear ready for a start, fitness-wise, as he had been without a team since the end of June. Noonan said it’s time to start integrating him, but I assume he needs more bench minutes before he could be thrown into the starting lineup.

3. Cincinnati are the best road team in MLS

HRB: With 10 wins away from home, Cincinnati are the best road team in all of MLS. What has led to that? And how could that help them in the postseason?

LP: It’s been really odd how much better Cincinnati has been on the road this season, compared to at home, where the crowds are always electric and sellouts are frequent. For some reason, they play more freely on the road. I do wonder if some of it has to do with the quality of their pitch at TQL Stadium. Passing was really bad Saturday, and Noonan said the slick conditions with the rain were perfect for how they like the ball to play fast. FCC replaced the surface with new grass this summer after the Kenny Chesney concert on June 29, and it was always known it would take some time for the roots to settle. Ultimately, it should benefit the team in the long run but in the meantime, it’s looked bad at times.

FCC is 4-4-2 at home across all competitions on the new grass (2-3-1 in league play at home).

Being so much better on the road could help if FCC ends up the #3 seed, but home-field advantage through the first round maybe isn’t as helpful for a team that hasn’t played so well at home recently.

4. The X-Factor: Luciano Acosta

HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?

LP: Acosta. Plain and simple. If he’s back to his normal self, you can’t discount FCC. He’s been back in the starting lineup four straight games now and with mixed results, but this team is clearly at its best when he is pulling the strings.

NYCFC will have the best chance if they can rattle FCC with an early goal; however, if Acosta can get his “magic touch” back with his 0ne-v-ones and passing, this team is much more capable of climbing back. He’s one that especially gets frustrated when results aren’t going well and he will try to do more on his own if the game isn’t going well. When he’s getting dispossessed, like he has been recently, and not connecting passes, that’s not going to help.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

LP: Final score: 2-2

This could be a preview of a playoff matchup, and I think this one ends up pretty evenly played. The midweek game means neither will be fresh, and NYCFC coming off a somewhat emotional victory in a derby makes this turnaround challenging in what essentially is a neutral environment. However, the injury to Awaziem does make FCC’s defense a bit more shaky, and I think NYCFC will take advantage of that.