Oppo Research: 5 Things about FC Cincinnati

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press to learn more about FC Cincinnati, New York City FC's opponent in Round One, Game 3 of the MLS Playoffs at TQL Stadium on Saturday night. Here is your NYCFC vs Cincinnati preview.

1. Cincinnati's defense needs to bounce back

Hudson River Blue: A huge win for NYCFC in Queens last Saturday, which you did predict. Did the match go as you expected it to? And do you think Cincinnati can bounce back from the loss?

Laurel Pfahler: Well, I didn’t know if Obinna Nwobodo was going to play when I submitted my predictions last week, and he did end up starting despite missing practices Wednesday and Thursday. But, I expected the midfield would look a lot different than it did with him. Perhaps he wasn’t at his best in that game because of whatever issue he was dealing with (FCC did not report any injuries outside of the season-ending ones we’ve known about), but NYCFC’s ability to exploit the midfield was a big key for the hosts in that game after all. Pavel Bucha only won five of his 16 duels, according to Fotmob.com, and Nwobodo wasn’t as impactful as he was in the previous matchup when the defense looked much better.

 New York City made FCC’s defense look incredibly lost and slow on that first goal when the Boys in Blue used two quick one-touch passes to get around them before Alonso Martinez fired off a one-touch shot to beat goalkeeper Roman Celentano. Then, the second goal off the set piece was exactly what Pat Noonan was hoping to avoid. FCC has struggled in those situations this year, and it was unfortunate Miles Robinson couldn’t clear that on the header he gifted Thiago Martins at the back post.

 It was not surprising to me that FCC could not find a second goal after Luca Orellano’s in the second half to try to equalize before the PK goal put the game away. Cincinnati hasn’t shown an ability to score multiple goals in a game for a while (the game-winner in a 2-1 win at Philadelphia came on an own goal, and the 96th-minute goal from Corey Baird in the 3-2 loss to NYCFC on October 2 was kind of an odd one). I do think FCC can bounce back at home, but if the Orange and Blue find themselves down two goals again, I think that’s going to be tough to recover.

2. Luciano Acosta is key

HRB: NYCFC shut down Luciano Acosta, which impacted Cincinnati’s overall performance. How can Cincinnati succeed without Acosta's involvement in the offense?

LP:  When the attack isn’t coming from Acosta’s play, it’s almost always going through Yamil Asad and Luca Orellano these days. I don’t think Yuya Kubo has been very effective at the forward position lately, but he’s capable as well. Bucha had a stretch where he was getting more involved in the attack and scoring some goals, but the Argentines on the team (Asad, Orellano, and Acosta) have been the biggest threats during the final stretch of the season. They have a really good chemistry together and have been a lot of fun to watch. Acosta did not have a strong game Saturday, and NYCFC certainly did well to negate his impact. FCC is obviously at its best when the 2023 league MVP is pulling the strings, so that will be another key in Game 3.

Stop this man

The single most important thing New York City FC can do to beat FC Cincinnati at TQL Stadium for the first time since 2021? Contain Luciano Acosta.

Hudson River BlueOliver Strand

3. A matchup with the Red Bulls awaits

HRB: The Red Bulls eliminated Columbus at home, meaning that the winner of this fixture will play the team from Harrison. Cincinnati and Red Bulls have a bit of a rivalry. Do you think that makes Saturday’s game even more important for Cincinnati?

LP: FCC should be motivated regardless, but I do think it should give more confidence knowing the path to the Eastern Conference final will go through the seventh seed and not Columbus. And, the fact Atlanta was able to force a Game 3 with Miami also is something that could help make an MLS Cup feel more realistic for anyone left in the bracket. But, the Orange and Blue have not played well enough consistently down the stretch to be looking ahead to the next round. They have to beat NYCFC, and they need to attack this game like their season could be ending because that’s the situation they are now facing and the storyline of these playoffs so far has been what the lower seeds are doing. NYCFC is very capable of advancing if FCC doesn’t come out and get a lead early.

4. The X-Factor: Composure of each team

HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?

LP: I think it’s going to come down to composure. I expect a physical game, especially since this will be the sixth time the teams have played each other this season and there have already been signs of players getting under each other’s skin. If players don’t control their emotions, that could lead to dangerous set pieces or penalties that could make the difference. They need to be smart about their fouls. I think I said last week that Santiago Rodríguez seemed to be getting in the head of some FCC players, but they can’t let that happen in an elimination game. FCC especially cannot afford to give up dangerous free kicks. I think that will be something Noonan will address with his team because he already mentioned that ahead of Game 2 and it proved to be a factor.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

LP: Final score: 1-0 FCC.

I’m going back to a repeat of Game 1. FCC should have a good crowd behind it Saturday, and I still think the Orange and Blue are a good enough team to make a run this postseason. They were disappointed in their performance in Game 2, even though it looked better in the second half than the first. The response in that game was good but needs to carry over into a good start in Game 3. I think this will be a game where Acosta just puts his team on his back and makes sure their season doesn’t end at home Saturday.