Oppo Research: 5 Things about FC Cincinnati

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press to learn more about FC Cincinnati, New York City FC's opponent in Round One, Game 2 of the MLS Playoffs at Citi Field on Saturday night. Here is your NYCFC vs Cincinnati preview.

1. Cincinnati dominated NYCFC

Hudson River Blue: You predicted a 1-0 win for Cincinnati on Monday night, which is exactly what happened. What are your thoughts on the result? And how do you think Cincinnati played overall?

Laurel Pfahler: Yes, I had a feeling FC Cincinnati’s defense would look better, and that proved to be the difference. New York City only ended up with the six shots, and a lot of that had to do with just how FCC defended the box, but I really thought it started with the press. I thought Obinna Nwobodo and Pavel Bucha were quick to snuff out trouble in the midfield as well, and the back line looked cohesive for a full 90 minutes for the first time in a long time.

 As I mentioned ahead of that game, it seemed likely Pat Noonan had finally found a combination with the lineup that could be effective and that was the first repeat lineup we have seen all season. They had 42 different combinations before that, across all competition, and the inconsistency really took a toll on performances down the stretch even after FCC had replaced centerbacks Matt Miazga and Nick Hagglund (both injured in June) on the roster.

 The passing looked sharper and the 3.75 xG showed the chances created were dangerous. FCC just needs to figure out how to finish more of them, but Luciano Acosta looked back to his MVP level of 2023 and his bank-shot assist off Yamil Asad’s header looked like the kind of connection that can be a big threat again going forward.

2. It's do or die for NYCFC

HRB: Cincinnati is statistically better on the road than at home, so do you think they’ll play even better at Citi Field on Saturday?

LP: I had that thought originally that maybe FCC would benefit this playoff run by not having guaranteed home-field advantage like last year as Supporters’ Shield winners, but the fact this game will be taking place at Citi Field makes me think it’s a clear advantage for NYCFC. FCC last played there in 2022 (a 1-1 draw) and seemed to have a really hard time. I don’t know if the conditions will be better having two weeks to prepare the field, but the narrow field I think will be a challenge for FCC because of its tendencies to want to play wide and not so direct.

I’m expecting NYCFC to really throw everything at Cincinnati, but the Orange and Blue do seem to play better without the pressure. The physicality of the game Monday seemed to get under their skin a little but not to the point of boiling over. I wonder what that will look like when possible elimination is on the line for one of these teams Saturday. Santi Rodríguez especially seemed to be pushing some buttons.

3. Cincinnati's defense has proven to be strong

HRB: Cincinnati’s defense stifled NYCFC’s offense in Game 1. Do you see the defense playing as well on Saturday despite playing on a narrower pitch than TQL Stadium?

LP: I think the defense is pretty solid now with Chidozie Awaziem, Miles Robinson and Teenage Hadebe playing really well together, but I am concerned that Obinna Nwobodo was not in training the last two days. Their DP defensive midfield is a huge part of FCC’s success, and if he isn’t able to play Saturday, there really isn’t a proven replacement for him. Yuya Kubo, originally a second striker who played midfield from 2021 until middle of this season, has always been Nwobodo’s backup if needed, but Kubo has settled in at the forward position this season and it is not ideal to have to change that up after finally having a chance for consistency in the lineup. Kubo is a Swiss Army knife and capable of filling in if tasked to, but it’s not the same without Nwobodo, and that will throw off the press up top as well, trying to make a change there from Kubo if he is needed in the midfield. Malik Pinto is the only other option on the bench, and he’s seen very little playing time the second half of the season. That could be huge for NYCFC.

4. The X-Factor: Obinna Nwobodo

HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?

LP: Nwobodo playing or not is the big difference maker for this game, in my opinion. If he’s not available to start, that really changes things for FC Cincinnati, just as the team is finally getting settled into a lineup. The Orange and Blue have faced many obstacles this season and the first few games after Miazga went down, they still managed to string together some results, including a highlight 6-1 win over Inter Miami, so they are capable of rising above any adversity that comes their way, but the struggles over the final third of the season create concern this would be another setback maybe they wouldn’t initially handle well. If Nwobodo does play, he’s a key to what surely will be another physical game. He is one of the team’s most physical players, and he’s gotten a lot smarter in his three seasons here in the fouls he makes and timing (for the most part). I think his ability to lock down the middle of the field really helped the back line Monday, and that could be game-changing for FCC.

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?

LP: I’m going to go on and guess Nwobodo doesn’t play, though he could be back in training tomorrow and very well be ready to go. DeAndre Yedlin returned to training Thursday after seemingly tweaking his back in the 30^th minute Monday and exiting for good at halftime, and coach Noonan mentioned that he won’t be impacted by missing a couple days of training. I think the same could be the case for Nwobodo, but I don’t know what he’s dealing with. Noonan told us everyone else besides Yedlin got through Monday’s game OK, so perhaps it’s not anything to be concerned about afterall. But not training Thursday is a bit alarming, so in the case that Nwobodo doesn’t play, I think they will have to move Kubo to midfield and they would either start Kevin Kelsy or Niko Gioacchini. I think this actually could be a good game for Kelsy’s holdup play and playing more direct with some long balls into the box to him.

Final score: 2-1 NYCFC

If I was more confident Nwobodo and Yedlin will be starting, then I would probably pick FC Cincinnati to win this just because I do think they are finding a rhythm and playing much better now. However, like I said, if Nwobodo is out, that’s a big wrench in the system this team hasn’t had to deal with in a while, and there is the possibility Yedlin isn’t ready to start as well (in which case I think Alvas Powell replaces him). Either way, it doesn’t seem this team will be 100 percent and FCC will need Game 3 to advance.