Oppo Research: 5 Things about New York Red Bulls

In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Michael Battista, who covers the Tri-State Soccer Scene and writes the Open Cup Digest for Hudson River Blue, to learn more about the New York Red Bulls, New York City FC’s Conference semifinals opponent at Citi Field for a first-ever Hudson River Derby MLS playoffs edition. The calls are coming from inside the house! Here is your NYCFC vs Red Bulls preview.

Episode 14: Gio Savarese previews the playoff derby

The New York soccer icon and current studio analyst for MLS on Apple helps us set the stage for the first postseason meeting between New York City FC and the New York Red Bulls.

Hudson River BlueHudson River Blue Staff

1. The Red Bulls have all the momentum

Hudson River Blue: The Red Bulls are coming off a massive upset over reigning MLS Cup winner Columbus Crew. How does that outcome motivate the Red Bulls ahead of this first-ever Hudson River Derby playoff match?

Michael Battista: I think Red Bulls captain Emil Forsberg said it best ahead of the first game in Columbus."OK, we’re playing Columbus. It’s a good team, but f—k it, we can win. Why can’t we?"

I think that mentality is not just caring over, but growing after the Columbus series. The thought of “why not us” is going to be huge fuel. Honestly not even just for RBNY but for everyone in the Eastern Conference now that the killer top three are gone. But for New York, yeah sure the idea has to be if they can knock off the defending champs, the team that’s played in three cup finals this calendar year and probably should be going to the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, why can’t they beat New York City FC?

A Turning Tide: The Hudson River Derby in 5 numbers

We look at the history of the rivalry between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, and how the Boys from Harrison no longer dominate the Hudson River Derby.

Hudson River BlueOliver Strand

2. The Red Bulls are the underdogs, but beware

HRB: NYCFC completed the regular season sweep of the Red Bulls, winning 2-1 at home and 5-1 at Red Bull Arena. But this game is the most consequential derby, and anything can happen. How do you feel about the Red Bulls entering this match as the underdogs?

MB: I think despite this being a No 6 seed vs a No 7 seed, New York City FC deserve to be the heavy favorites. But I also think the 2024 Red Bulls regular season was deceptive.

Most people will see a team that couldn’t win games and dropped from fourth place to seventh right before the playoffs. The other half of that is while RBNY dropped points, their 14 draws were the most of any team in Major League Soccer. They are a tough team to beat. The Red Bulls are the underdogs, but also know this is a brand-new competition. The sins of the past are expunged and a win on Saturday will, essentially, nullify NYCFC’s sweep in the regular season.

Eastern Conference Semifinal: 5 Things about NYCFC

We discuss why it’s important to score early, contain Emil Forsberg, and start Justin Haak. Plus: Injury report, predicting Starting XI.

Hudson River BlueAndrew Leigh

3. A spot in the Conference finals is up for grabs

HRB: The Red Bulls are looking to advance to the Conference Finals for the first time since 2018. After eliminating Columbus, what would it mean to knock out NYCFC?

MB: I think just RBNY getting past the first round for the first time since 2018 was getting the monkey off their back. To do it against the Crew was huge both historically (they are a team that had the Bulls’ number in the playoffs) and practically (them being the defending MLS Cup champions). That being said, I feel like most of the organization would say beating NYCFC in the first-ever playoff meeting trumps all. Even if RBNY were to lose in the Eastern Conference Final like they did in 2018, the club and players would have an enormous boost from turning New York red. To put it simply, losing to NYCFC would hurt more than losing the MLS Cup Final.

Eastern Conference Semifinal capacity increased to 25,000

Additional sections behind home plate and above the supporters will add 2,500 seats.

Hudson River BlueHudson River Blue Staff

4. The X-Factor: The Red Bulls backline

HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?

MB: Can the backline be in-sync? It goes without saying but Sean Nealis, Dylan Nealis, and Andrés Reyes are a huge reason why the Red Bulls are still playing soccer. The center-backs made critical plays, with Sean Nealis in particular a huge deterrent on corners and other set-pieces. Dylan Nealis, meanwhile, has been a huge playmaker on his wing, especially considering that John Tolkin has been the weakest link.

If those players can hold NYCFC back, it's going to be up to the players up top to capitalize. Otherwise I don’t give RBNY the benefit of the doubt when playing from behind. It's funny because since you don’t know where the goals are coming from on this team, defense remains the most important thing. Could be another Cameron Harper banger, could be an Emil Forsberg PK, could be a John Tolkin shot that hits off defender’s head and into the goal.

Limited 7 train service for NYCFC vs NY Red Bulls playoff game

But connections to the 7 Train are available in Queens. Another option: The LIRR operates hourly direct trains from Grand Central and Penn Station.

Hudson River BlueHudson River Blue Staff

5. Predicted score, Starting XI

HRB: Prediction time: Final score? Starting XI?

MB: As one of the few RBNY media members that actually gave New York a chance in Game 1 against Columbus, this game scares me.

This game is nightmare fuel and also what dreams are made of. We’ve seen what the MLS Cup Playoffs can do to the Canadian Classique, El Tráfico, and Hell Is Real. This is a game that might be talked about a decade from now. For that reason, I will be riding with the New York Red Bulls, earning a 2-1 win in extra time because going straight to penalty kicks after 90 minutes is a blight. Fix this format for the love of God MLS.