In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke up with Joe Lister of Philadelphia Soccer Now for the second time this season to get the dirt on Philadelphia Union, New York City FC’s opponent on Matchday 24 at Subaru Park in Chester, PA. Back in May, Lister predicted that Philadelphia would beat NYCFC at Citi Field 0-2 — which they went on to win 1-3. Shows what he knows.
Here is your NYCFC vs Philadelphia preview.
1. Blake is back
Hudson River Blue: Philadelphia had a wild game on Wednesday in Nashville: Two penalties, three red cards, 25 fouls called. You’ve been Boiko’ed! It was a game the Union should have lost on paper and yet they flew home with a win — it must have tasted good after suffering two road losses in a row. Now Philadelphia sit comfortably in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. What’s the feeling in Chester these days?
Joe Lister: It’s up and down, especially after last night.
It’s worth noting that a lot of the recent poor form can be attributed to playing through the Gold Cup. Yes, everyone lost players to the tournament, but not everyone went from Andre Blake in goal to Joe Bendik. Against the Los Angeles Galaxy, two of the Union’s three goals can be directly attributed to Bendik’s mistakes. The third goal Blake may have gotten a touch on to poke it over the bar.
But Blake will be back for Saturday’s game, so the vibes are higher. With the addition of Kai Wagner back to the starting XI after missing time due to injury, fans are feeling alright. Away stretches are tough, and this summer is full of them, but the win over Nashville feels like the squad could be turning things around. A lot of guys took a bump in quality, which means that it’s probably a managing change over a player change, which is ideal.
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2. Carranza’s red card
HRB: One of those red cards was shown to Julián Carranza in the 90 + 5′ minute. What will his absence on Saturday mean? Philadelphia can put on the hurt in all kinds of ways, but the attacking chemistry between Carranza and Dániel Gazdag is one of the keys to the Union’s success.
JL: Carranza has been the Union’s attacker on the year, there’s no doubt about that from anyone. He’s not perfect, and he’s not the best attacker in MLS, but he deserved an All-Star shout at least. His absence will be noted on Saturday. Also, it was a deserved red card, but don’t tell Union fans I said that.
However, Quinn Sullivan isn’t a bad backup. He started the match on Wednesday to give Mikael Uhre a rest, and had a few good looks, including one that clanged off the woodwork that would have made the top four goals of the week (though the one from the San Jose vs Seattle game is going to win no matter what). Carranza’s a tough absence, and depth is definitely a question behind Sullivan (Chris Donovan and Jeremy Rafanello are the best options right now), but it isn’t the end of the road for the Union. If they can get a goal or two in the first 60 minutes, they might not have to worry about depth as much.
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3. Curtin time
HRB: Philadelphia is a physical, technical, and cohesive team that starts each match with a clear game plan. They’re incredibly well-coached, and news broke earlier this week that Jim Curtin just signed a contract extension that will keep him at the club through at least 2026. What does his staying on mean to the players? The organization? The fans?
JL: Curtin’s been great for the Union over his tenure, that’s for certain. I personally have never been his biggest fan (I remember booing him in 2015), but he deserves his extension. He’s a solid manager that’s taken the club to new levels.
There’s a case to be made that the contract extension gave the Union that bump against Nashville. The team went from incredibly uninspiring against LA to a strong opponent on the road against one of the Eastern Conference’s best. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but maybe the Union players were happy to see that their guy was sticking around.
As for the organization and the fans, it means security. Every time that a club searches for a new coach, it becomes a gamble. The new manager could be terrible, and it’s a wasted two years before the club moves on. Keeping Curtin through 2026 (note the World Cup timing there) means that the Union have some layer of security for the next three seasons. It’s a good feeling to get that in the rearview mirror.
Hopefully, they can do the same thing with Ernst Tanner.
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4. The X-Factor: Mikael Uhre?
HRB: What’s the X-factor that could decide Saturday’s game?
JL: I’ll give two.
Number one, Andre Blake. If Blake can be on top of his game after a disappointing exit from the Gold Cup on Wednesday, then the Union should be alright. At his best, Blake is impossible to get past. The Union might not need exactly that, but they can’t give up two goals and expect to win this game.
Number two, Mikael Uhre. With Carranza gone, eyes will be on the Union’s other No. 9. Uhre hasn’t really lived up to expectations this year, although they were set pretty high. Uhre needs to start making a bigger impact before he becomes disposable in the next few years. He’s got real quality, he just needs to start finding the net. PFF says that his underlying numbers suggest he should score more, but take that with as many grains of salt as you like.
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5. Predicted Philadelphia Starting XI
HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI, score?
JL: Score: 2-0 for the Union. Somehow, someway, this is a Union win. They’re on the come-up, that’s for sure.
