In this edition of Oppo Research, Hudson River Blue spoke with Michael Battista, who covers the Tri-State Soccer Scene and writes the Open Cup Digest for Hudson River Blue, to learn more about the New York Red Bulls, New York City FC’s opponent in the high-stakes Hudson River Derby at Red Bull Arena on Saturday. The calls are coming from inside the house! Here is your NYCFC vs Red Bulls preview.
• League Form: D-L-D-L-D
• Record: 10W, 14D, 6L | 44 points, 4th place
• Scoring Leader: Lewis Morgan, 12 goals
• Assist Leader: Dante Vanzeir, 9 assists
1. Injuries, underperforming players, and international breaks have plagued the Red Bulls
Hudson River Blue: The Red Bulls are winless in five matches, last defeating FC Cincinnati 3-1 before the start of Leagues Cup. With disappointing losses to Philadelphia and Chicago, what’s going wrong for the Red Bulls now?
Michael Battista: Roster depth and underperforming strikers have been devastating for the New York Red Bulls this season. Injuries, like the one that kept team captain Emil Forsberg off the field, and international breaks (plus the Olympics) have been a consistent problem. Forsberg is a huge playmaker in the midfield and his loss, combined with Frankie Amaya departing for Deportivo Toluca FC, has shown that the area of the field is shallow.
Not to mention the players up top are not performing. Dante Vanzeir went 140 days between scoring a goal despite being a constant presence and has looked to have lost his consistent starting role. Elias Manoel and Cory Burke have only combined for five goals, with the former drawing ire on multiple occasions for missing what could be described as “gimmies.” Lewis Morgan, a midfielder who essentially acts as a striker, is the top goal scorer and he’s been called up by Scotland twice so his rhythm has been constantly affected. It's been a frustrating time with the team hoping to find some consistency in the final stretch of the regular season.
Michael Battista
2. Not turning draws into wins
HRB: The Red Bulls have drawn 14 matches this season, the most in MLS. Besides St. Louis (who have 13 draws), no other team in MLS is close to that number. How can the Red Bulls turn some of these draws into wins?
MB: The glass-half-full outlook on draws is simple: The Red Bulls are a difficult team to beat. But if New York wants to get more wins they simply need to score more goals. RBNY is 15th in goals per match (1.6) and allow the opposing team to retain possession for, on average, 55% of the match, which is the fourth-highest percentage in the league. New York’s MO is conceding possession and making what time they have with the ball count. But less time on offense means the players who score goals have to do more in their limited window. Right now, RBNY does not have “the guy” who the team can consistently be counted on for goals. Which means games more than not end up with each team getting a point.
Oliver Strand
3. Defense saving the day
HRB: During their five-game winless streak, the Red Bulls also struggled defensively, conceding eight goals. It’s a young backline, but are there more to the defensive issues currently?
MB: I’m going to slightly push back on the “young backline” comment. Sean Nealis, Dylan Nealis, and Andrés Reyes are all pillar presences in the back four with years of experience. Yes, there are middling-young guys. John Tolkin’s hype has gone flat and his match play has been on a downward curve. Noah Eile has had regretful moments, like sticking up his hand to block a ball against Vancouver for a red card back in April. But this is a solid defensive unit that is allowing the 5th fewest goals per game this season across the league (1.3). To put it simply, and relating it back to your last question, the offense is why New York doesn’t have more wins, while the defense is why the team doesn’t have more losses.
Hudson River Blue Staff
4. The X-Factor: The possible return of Emil Forsberg
HRB: What's the X-factor that could decide this game?
MB: Does Emil Forsberg play and how well does New York City adapt to missing Strahinja Tanasijević and Santi Rodriguez. Head coach Sandro Schwarz told the media that the Swedish national team player will be on the roster for Saturday. But caution favors him starting the game on the bench. Still, it's clear Emil is a key in this setup. If RBNY can hold up an NYCFC squad that’s averaging just over a goal per game in their last five, while allowing just under three goals in its last four matches, then the home side might be able to find the pressure. Especially with a second-half Forsberg coming on as a sub. The last two games at Red Bull Arena against Sporting Kansas City and Atlanta United FC have shown RBNY have late-game ability, with each having a point-saving goal scored near or after the 90th minute.
Andrew Leigh
5. Predicted score, Starting XI
HRB: Prediction time: Starting XI? Final score?
MB: The Hudson River Derby will end in a 1-1 draw this weekend and New York City will lift the HRD trophy for the first time (officially) based on winning the first game at Citi Field. This potentially means the Eastern Conference table between fourth and seventh place stays stagnant for another week — depending on how Charlotte FC and Orlando City SC do.
