When FC Cincinnati took the field last Saturday, it was with the same Starting XI that defeated New York City FC the previous Monday 1-0. Cincinnati head coach Pat Noonan, who never used the same lineup twice during the 2024 Major League Soccer regular season¹, decided to ride a hot hand and start the same squad that outplayed NYCFC in the first Round One game of the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs.

New York City head coach Nick Cushing made three changes to his Starting XI. A match-fit Maxi Moralez took his place in the center of the midfielder, shifting Santiago Rodríguez to the left and Andrés Perea to the bench. Mijta Ilenič started at right-back in the place of Tayvon Gray, who was suspended after earning a straight red card. And Justin Haak was paired with Thiago Martins in central defense, replacing a Birk Risa who looked a little off in recent weeks.

The impact of Cushing's changes was apparent a few minutes into Saturday's game at Citi Field. A team that looked devoid of attacking ideas on Monday were testing Cincinnati's midfielders and defenders, and a New York City defense that looked incoherent in Game 1 were now impenetrable. All that would change after halftime, when Cincinnati grew into the game and came close to stealing a result, but the first 45 minutes belonged to New York City.

In no small part that's because NYCFC contained Cincinnati playmaker Luciano Acosta, handing the 30-year-old his worst outing in 2024 as a starter against an MLS side per FotMob.

Luciano Acosta | MLS Cup Playoffs Round One

To be clear, Acosta didn't put up a bad performance. He created one chance, took two shots, and ended the night with a 0.79 xG + xA. If Alvas Powell, the backup striker Noonan brought on in the 76th minute, had been a little less deliberate in front of goal, Acosta might have added another goal and assist to his stats sheet. But it was a subpar night by the lofty standards of one of the most dynamic midfielders in the league — and it was two full steps behind Acosta's performance on Monday, when he created seven chances and was easily the game's best outfield player.

Going into Saturday's game, the directives should be clear for both Cushing and Noonan. Cushing will want to design another game plan that will limit Acosta, who is Cincinnati's engine and rudder, the player who both powers the team's attack and gives it direction. When Acosta is at his best, he's nearly unstoppable. Standing at just 5' 3", Acosta is quick and decisive, and has a knack for picking out a pass that splits the defense and plays the ball into open space: If Acosta is pulling the strings, you always make the runs.

But, as Cushing showed us on Saturday, a dependence on Acosta also makes Cincinnati vulnerable. If Acosta can't pull the strings, the attack falls apart.

Advance man

Acosta might be a No 10, but he likes to hold an advanced position deep in the attacking third. Like Lionel Messi, he conserves energy, and lightly jogs or even strolls around the field when he's not on the ball. But unlike Messi, Acosta rarely tracks back to receive or retrieve the ball in deeper positions.

Instead, Acosta likes to linger in the opponent's half. He's usually on the left, just outside the box, but he sometimes glides to the right. What he rarely does is spend time inside in the middle of the field unless it's a kickoff.

In other words, Acosta needs service.

Luciano Acosta 2024 Heatmap

Lionel Messi 2024 Heatmap

That's unusual for a No 10 in MLS. Other top players at that position, including Evander of Portland Timbers, Santiago Rodíguez of NYCFC, and Facundo Torres of Orlando City operate more centrally. They do as much to recover the ball and link play between the zones as they do to orchestrate an attack.

Evander 2024 Heatmap

Santiago Rodríguez 2024 Heatmap

Facundo Torres 2024 Heatmap

That positioning works for Acosta and Cincinnati. The midfielder had 14 goals and 19 assists in league play this year, which gives him 33 goal involvements total. It's an improvement over the 31 he logged in 2023, when Cincinnati won the Supporters' Shield, and the 29 he had in 2022.

Cut off the supply

But Acosta needs that service to be successful. He relies on midfielders Obinna Nwobodo and Yamil Asad to feed him, and for center-back Teenage Hadebe to function like a hybrid wingback who carries the ball up the flank.

It worked on Monday, when Cincinnati moved the ball smoothly into advanced positions. It didn't on Saturday, when a Cincinnati defense pinned back by New York City couldn't keep control of the ball. Just as key was defensive midfielder James Sands, whose positioning cut off the passing channels that normally supply Acosta.

If you look at the passing networks for the two matches you see how Acosta (CAM) was the most advanced Cincinnati player in Game 1 on Monday, with the ball circulating up along the left up to Asad (LWB). Acosta often played in front of the two strikers in that game, with the three combining directly in front of goal.

That changed in Game 2, when Asad had trouble connecting with Hadebe (LCB), and was almost entirely cut off from Nwobodo (LCM). Acosta had to operate farther back than he likes, and was no longer the most advanced attacker. Acosta had to function more like a midfielder, and it didn't work.

FC Cincinnati Passing Network | Round One, Game 1

FC Cincinnati Passing Network | Round One, Game 2

The key to limiting Acosta is to choke off the passing lanes. Noonan addressed this in Saturday's game when he took off Asad in the 57th minute and brought on striker Sergio Santos, which allowed Yuya Kubo to shift to the left wingback position. The move paid off just eight minutes later, when Kubo, Acosta, and Santos combined to set up a screamer scored by Luca Orellano.

Acosta provided the hockey assist. But more than that, it was a momentary return to the passing lanes Cincinnati exploited on Monday.

Luca. Goal. 🫡 pic.twitter.com/ggoyQKbb7x

— FC Cincinnati (@fccincinnati) November 2, 2024

This Saturday, if New York City are to win at TQL Stadium for the first time since 2021, and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, they will need to shut off the service that Acosta requires.

Cincinnati's codependency

And if they do, New York City stand a good chance of walking away with a result. Few players are as instrumental to the success of a team as Acosta is to Cincinnati. Not only is he one of the most complete No 10 in the league, but an astonishing percentage of the Cincinnati attack flows directly through him: His 33 goal involvements during the regular season account for 56.9% of Cincinnati's 58 goals. There is no single player on any of the remaining playoff teams that have as large of an impact on their squad's attack.

Goal Involvements by Player | 2024 MLS Regular Season

* Among clubs still competing in the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs

Out of the 12 clubs left in the MLS Cup Playoffs, five have players who account for less than 40% of their team's goals. Another five account for less than 50% — and that includes Lionel Messi, with 36 goal involvements. Only Albert Rusnák of Seattle Sounders joins Acosta above the 50% line, but there's still a wide gap between the two.

Both of Cincinnati's postseason goals this year went through Acosta — he might be credited with just the one assist, but Saturday's goal couldn't happen without him. He was unlucky not to add to the scoresheet again — had Powell played a simple pass to an unmarked Acosta standing in front of an open goal in the 88th minute, Cincinnati might already be through to the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

How will Cushing contain Acosta on Saturday? It's hard to box in a player that good. Per FBRef, Acosta is in the 99th percentile for assists, goals plus assists, and shot-creating actions. He is in the 99th percentile for passes into the penalty area, 96th percentile for progressive passes, and 94th percentile for passes into the final third. He is in the 99th percentile for "successful take-ons that lead to a shot attempt." FBRef doesn't track "actions that break ankles," but if it did, Acosta would be in the 99th percentile for that category.

One thing is for sure, Cushing can't expect that the same tactics will work twice in a row. Noonan put out a copy-and-paste lineup button after Monday's triumph, and we saw what happened. Acosta will surely adjust how he plays, and Noonan might tinker with the lineup: The team looked much more dangerous with Kubo on the left and Santos up top, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see some changes in the Starting XI.

Now Cushing will need to figure out how to adjust his team so that they neutralize the Acosta who will show up at TQL Stadium, and not the Acosta who already lost last week.

That's easier said than done.

¹ The Starting XI was in fact the same as the one that defeated Philadelphia Union on Decision Day: Noonan stuck with the same lineup for three games in a row, but they were spaced over two competitions.