The most consequential Hudson River Derby of all time?

Whenever New York City FC and the New York Red Bulls meet in a Hudson River Derby, bragging rights are always on the line.

But this Saturday's contest at Red Bull Arena feels more important than usual. This match arrives late in the season, with massive postseason implications for both sides.

That begs the question, is this the most important Hudson River Derby yet?

To answer that, we need to look at past years.

Episode 5: A game that needs no introduction

All the angles of a high-stakes edition of the Hudson River Derby get covered, from the playoff implications for both New York City FC and the Red Bulls, to how New York City might line up while missing key players.

Hudson River BlueHudson River Blue Staff

2022: A crystal-clear win

Back in 2022, NYCFC were suffering through a rough end to the summer. From July 30 to September 14, they picked up just two wins in 11 matches — and one of those wins came in a non-league game against Liga MX champions Atlas FC in the Campeones Cup.

Next on the schedule was a game against the Red Bulls at Yankee Stadium on Matchday 32.

Despite New York City coming off a statement win over Atlas, Red Bulls then-head coach Gerhard Struber was confident his side would win in the Bronx. "It is crystal clear that we will win this game," he said.

That didn't happen. Instead, NYCFC earned a one-sided 2-0 victory and finished the season strong, making a run to the Eastern Conference Finals.

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2024: Most important?

If the September 2022 edition of the Hudson River Derby was the second-most impactful, then the matchup this Saturday could be the most important. A win for either side could go a long way to help solidify the Fourth Place spot in the Eastern Conference — and that Fourth-Place seed is so crucial in the playoffs because it gives the team two home games in the best-of-three series.

At the same time, a loss or draw could allow a surging Orlando City to stake a claim to the Fourth Place spot. Let's face it, no team is taking away a Top Three seed from Inter Miami, FC Cincinnati, or Columbus Crew, so this is the last home seed still up for grabs.

2024 Eastern Conference Standings

As of September 26, 2024

That's why this derby is so consequential for both teams. A win for New York City would see them leapfrog the Red Bulls — the two would be equal on points, but NYCFC would take Fourth Place as the first tiebreak is total wins. Orlando have a tough away match against FC Dallas, while Charlotte will play Inter Miami in Ft. Lauderdale.

New York City doesn't have the easiest end to the season. After Red Bulls on Saturday, NYCFC will next host FC Cincinnati on Wednesday and Nashville SC on Sunday. Both of those games will be at Red Bull Arena. New York City then play CF Montréal at State Saputo on Decision Day.

But a victory for the Red Bulls is just as important. They're winless in their last five matches and desperately need three points. After the derby, they'll play Toronto FC and Atlanta United on the road, followed by a difficult game against Columbus Crew at home on Decision Day. The Red Bulls are in danger of finishing the regular season without a win.

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Expect a physical Hudson River Derby

Both teams will also be without key players, making the matchup more interesting.

Due to yellow card suspension, NYCFC will be without Santiago Rodríguez and Strahinja Tanasijević. Birk Risa's return from injury is still unknown, which means that New York City may have to slot in Justin Haak or Tayvon Gray at center back. Without Rodríguez, NYCFC will need Maxi Moralez to be at the forefront of the attack, and either Agustín Ojeda or Julián Fernández on the left wing.

As for the Red Bulls, star-signing Emil Forsberg is expected to make his return from a leg injury that kept him sidelined since the end of June. Defenders Kyle Duncan and Sean Nealis will remain out with injuries.

It's fair to say that whichever team wins on Saturday is the favorite to finish above the other in the table. NYCFC will be looking to make it a season sweep of their bitter rivals for the first time since 2022, while the Red Bulls will want to even the series after losing 2-1 at Citi Field in May.

A tense, physical matchup is expected in a Hudson River Derby that has greater implications than ever before.

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